Two months ago, the Labour Party won a decisive victory in a historic United Kingdom general election. Sir Keir Starmer, Labour’s leader and newly elected the UK’s Prime Minister, has over 63 percent of Parliament behind him — while Labour’s foremost rival, the Conservative Party, now holds just 19 percent of seats, a dramatic decrease from their previous 56 percent in the party’s worst-ever performance. Between this election result, last month’s unexpected triumph of left-wing and centrist parties over the far-right in France, and strong showings by the center-left in Korea, Taiwan, and India, it’s tempting to assume the political left wing is in a strong position worldwide. However, Labour’s election results are not as strong as they seem. Moreover, the party’s recent ideological trajectory should raise concerns, and Labour is suffering from a serious lack of voter engagement. If Labour and similar parties elsewhere want to hold on to their recent gains by their next elections, they must confront their shortcomings and face the necessity for reform.
Firstly, the performance of the Labour Party — a center-left political party roughly analogous to the Democratic Party in the U.S. — in this election was much weaker than it seems at first glance. Though Labour’s 63 percent of seats in Parliament is nominally impressive, it’s far from indicative of how people actually voted. In fact, Labour’s 34 percent of the popular vote to 63 percent of seats and 100 percent effective control of Parliament make 2024 the least representative election result in the UK’s history — so referring to seat share alone paints a deceptively rosy picture of Labour’s performance. In 2019, the Conservatives won fewer seats than Labour did in 2024, but the 44 percent of the popular vote and raw vote count they achieved then surpasses Labour’s recent performance. Furthermore, Labour has not made significant gains among the electorate since their 2019 defeat, improving their share of the popular vote by under two percentage points while their raw vote total fell. Rather, Labour’s performance appears more the result of third-party growth and low turnout — signs of dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Labour — than the party’s own merit. Specifically, Reform UK (a new anti-immigration and ideologically conservative political party initially founded as the Brexit Party) split the typically Conservative vote in many constituencies, allowing Labour to win without making any inroads themselves. Combined, Reform UK and the Conservatives won 38 percent of the vote, a figure notably higher than Labour’s. Labour had a perfect storm for this election, but fell short of predictions nonetheless. By the time of the next election — when Reform UK and the Conservatives will have consolidated some support, when Labour (rather than the incumbent Conservatives of the last election cycle) will face the blame for any economic faltering or healthcare failures, and after Labour’s policies will have been subject to additional scrutiny — Labour will not be able to rely on the same issues and playbook.
The late Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher is quoted as having described her greatest achievement as “Tony Blair and New Labour. [The Conservative Party] forced [their] opponents to change their minds.” Thatcher was referring to a 1990s realignment towards centrist economic policies within the traditionally leftist Labour Party. From Labour’s embrace of economic austerity measures to a pronounced reduction in working-class Labour candidates for Parliament, Starmer admitted that Labour has “lost the trust of working people,” along with several winnable elections. Many voters feel the Labour Party has left behind their base of support in favor of more superficial social liberalism. In abandoning Jeremy Corbyn’s more left-wing vision for the party for Starmer’s economically moderate positions in 2020, Labour continues to chase moderate support over their working-class roots. This strategic decision played a role in Labour’s 2024 result — and in its loss of millions of voters over the last few years.
Perhaps more concerning is the shift towards transphobic policies throughout much of the historically pro-LGBTQIA+ rights party. In a decidedly less progressive vein than the party’s previous stance, Labour’s recently appointed health secretary withdrew earlier comments he made that affirmed trans identities and defended a ban on puberty blockers. Labour has also supported barring trans-women from women-only spaces and endorsed the Cass Review, a report whose findings have been criticized as biased, transphobic, and methodologically flawed. Labour’s pivot away from their most reliable voters and toward the political center isn’t gaining them any support. If Labour wants to grow their support — as the party must if they hope to maintain control against a unified right-wing alternative — reversing course to shore up their base of support is the most important step.
Lastly, the Labour Party is failing to engage potential voters, especially in the long term. Labour’s electoral victory relied on the prospect that widespread dissatisfaction with the UK’s political and day-to-day reality split against the incumbent party — and after fourteen years of Conservative rule in the aftermath of one major recession and presiding over another one, it worked. But despite representing the most realistic alternative to a deeply unpopular government, Labour’s raw vote numbers fell — along with turnout nationwide, which reached its lowest level in decades. Further evidence of widespread political dissatisfaction is the record 43 percent voters casting their votes for third parties, a figure that stood at 18 percent when Corbyn led the party in 2017. Party membership and donations from their working-class roots have fallen over the past few elections. Labour has seen a 25 percent decrease in voters — from nearly 13 million votes to under 10 — since their 2017 defeat. This support certainly isn’t all going to the Conservatives or Reform UK, and it can’t be going to the center-left Liberal Democratic Party, which saw a popular vote increase of under one percent since 2019 and has flipped zero Labour seats over the last decade. Labour is failing to motivate not only new voters, but many of those who voted for them in the past; to improve their prospects, Labour must find a way to engage and energize their base to hold on in the next election, when Labour will not be able to ride the same perfect storm to victory.
Labour won a landslide victory and their strongest election result in over a quarter century, an accomplishment they should be proud of. However, Labour’s performance does not reflect the party’s merits as much as it might seem to. Between Labour’s own unremarkable election performance, the party’s concerning and thus far damaging political shifts, and the recent inability of centrist Labour to motivate voters, the Labour Party finds a difficult fight ahead to maintain government control. Labour must come to terms with these issues sooner rather than later — but it’s not too late for them to change course. Labour has time to resolve their underlying weaknesses before the next election, as well as one thing they haven’t had for fourteen years: a national stage on which to transform their policies and ideas by returning to their roots. If Labour recognizes where they need reform and acts accordingly, Labour’s performance in this election can be less of a last hurrah for the party, and more of a new start.
