This offseason, the baseball world saw one of the most anticipated free agencies since, well, last season. After much deliberation, free-agent superstar Juan Soto swapped the New York Yankees for their crosstown rivals and signed a shocking, 15-year, $765,000,000 contract with the Mets. On face value, this is a massive win for the Mets, which are known throughout the league as perennial losers. It probably is; outbidding your biggest rivals for their player, adding one of the best hitters in baseball to a lineup that almost went to the World Series last year, and locking him up for 15 years is a dream scenario. However, as a lifelong (long-suffering) Mets fan, I’m not convinced. History and heartbreak have taught me that the Mets are never a sure bet, unless you are the owner and have some inside information.
There are several reasons for my cynical outlook. First, the expectations for Juan Soto and, by extension, the Mets, this season are stratospheric. The Mets love to play metaphorical limbo with expectations. My first baseball memory is watching Eric Hosmer of the Kansas City Royals slide home and score the tying run in the ninth inning of Game 5 of the 2015 World Series. The Royals would go on to win that game and the World Series, crushing any hope that the Mets would win it all. After that season, prospects were high for the Mets. There was an exciting young pitching staff with pitchers like Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, who gained the monikers Thor and The Dark Knight, and my naive, six-year-old self thought that it was only up from there. Right? Wrong. The following season saw the Mets top their division but get swept 3-0 in the Wild Card game against the San Francisco Giants. That was the last time the Mets even sniffed the playoffs in the 2010s. Disappointing season followed disappointing season as the Mets went through 4 managers, saw a manager fired for sexual harassment, had their star player get injured playing golf and being chased by a wild boar, and wasted the prime years of two-time Cy Young Winner Jacob deGrom.
The madness seemed to stop when the ethically ambiguous venture capitalist Steve Cohen bought the team in 2020. His spending power saw the signings of marquee players like Francisco Lindor and Edwin Díaz, which led to the Mets winning 101 games in 2022, making their first playoff appearance since 2016. However, despite winning 101 games and leading the division for almost the entirety of the season, in the final week, the Mets’ luck turned for the worse. In the final series of the season, the Mets faced the second-place Atlanta Braves. The Braves swept the Mets, allowing Atlanta to take first place, leaving the Mets to the Wild Card. Once again, the Mets bowed out in the Wild Card, producing only one hit in the deciding game against the Padres. Once again, the bar was high for next season, and once again, they would fall short.
The 2023 season was a dumpster fire. Trouble began before the season started. Star reliever Edwin Díaz tore his UCL celebrating a victory during the preseason World Baseball Classic and was out for the season. That was the death knell for the season. Injury and inconsistent play plagued the Mets, causing them to trade away star players at the deadline. The Mets finished the season sitting in 4th place in the division, 29 games out of first place. This was a bitter disappointment compared to the successful regular season in 2022. 2024 looked to be more of the same, as the Mets started the season 0-5 and boos were heard ringing out around an empty Citi Field. However, the Mets got hot in the second half of the season and sneaked into the final wild card spot. They then shocked everybody by making a miracle run to the National League Championship Series, where they fell to the eventual champions, the L.A. Dodgers. Expectations could never be higher for the Mets, and, as we have seen time and time again, the Mets never perform under this type of pressure.
Adding to the Mets’ chronic underperformance, the Mets have experience signing players to massive, multi-year contracts, few of which have succeeded. You may have heard of Bobby Bonilla Day, the day in July when the Mets pay Bobby Bonilla, a player who hasn’t swung a bat since 2001, 24 years ago, over a million dollars in back pay. That’s because the Mets signed him to an exorbitant contract, which he did not live up to. The Mets bought him out, but they still had to pay the rest of his gigantic contract, which is why the Mets will pay Bobby Bonilla a million bucks a year until 2035, when he’ll be 72 years old. There is a precedent for these large contracts not working out for the Mets. Soto will be 42 when his contract expires in 2040, but until then, he’ll make an average of $51,000,000 a year. Of course, Soto has his merits, being one of the most consistent hitters in the MLB since debuting as a teenager in 2018, winning five Silver Sluggers, being selected to four All-Star games, and finishing second in MVP voting in 2021. The sheer magnitude of his contract causes one to wonder how he’ll ever live up to it. This season, he’s been lackluster compared to his high standard, batting a measly .250 with just six extra-base hits in the first three weeks of the season. The massive pressure on Soto and the haplessness of the team he represents mean that Soto will inevitably fall short. “Ya Gotta Believe,” say the Mets fans, but this Mets fan will believe it when he sees it.
