As election day closes in, calling this cycle extraordinary would be an understatement. American elections are some of the most closely watched and largely scaled resource allocation exercises in the world, and their ability to alter international diplomacy for a four-year span gravitates millions of viewers, including myself. The U.S. elections can naturally favor the candidate who can reach more voters via rallies, ads, and events. This is why the elections usually rely on millions of dollars of donations to sustain their campaigns, especially for Kamala Harris, who has to compete with a continued campaign as large as Donald Trump’s. As a result, the usual American election comes with much attention and heated political rhetoric. This election cycle has been extraordinary, and so have the views, voices, and supporters.
Never have the electoral candidates been this different in their plans for the country and never have the demographics of their support been this polarized. On one hand, focusing on consistent demographics is important. Trump has continued to strengthen his campaign with his main demographic: white men without college degrees. Harris has similarly sought to appeal to liberals who previously supported Biden. On the other hand, though, Trump has managed to rally support from Latine voters on immigration, as many of them are now in support and contribute to the rise of Latine conservatism. Harris has also captivated young voters who just graduated college with her liberal policies on climate change and abortion. The main talking points of this election have been the economy, reproductive rights, immigration, and democracy. Currently, people compare Trump as being more capable of handling the economy and immigration, while Harris leads in abortional rights and preservation of democracy. Voters say that Trump leads Harris on economic capabilities 93 to 68, immigration 82 to 39 leaning towards Trump, while Harris leads on abortion 67 to 35 and leads in preserving democracy. These numbers show the percentage rate of approval among likely voters. With narrowing polls and conflicted audiences, the ultimate decision seems to come down to the public view on each candidate’s capabilities in juxtaposition with their weaknesses.
Harris offers a more pragmatic vision for her term, vowing to restore reproductive freedoms by reinstating Roe v. Wade, increasing taxes for businesses and big corporations, and increasing the Child Tax Credit for starting families. She aligns with a lot of the democratic party’s views, proposing plans that will require an expansion of governmental control and regulation. She plans to continue many ideals of Bidenomics (defined by providing relief from Covid-19 and increasing infrastructure funding with tax increases for the rich) to provide lower-and-middle-class Americans with inflation relief. Harris also proposes a bipartisan immigration bill to give her and the justice system more speed and flexibility to deport migrants. She has attempted to distance herself from more progressive ideals in order to accommodate the swing voters that are key to getting her to the White House. Her logic and calmness compared to her opponents have attracted Republicans tired of Trump’s temper and often extreme rhetoric.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Trump provides bold and brash promises that would appeal to conservative swings and Democrats. Some Democrats were already frustrated by Biden’s pragmatic approach to politics which is steady but difficult in gaining public appeal. This ties into why Biden didn’t perform as well in the polls compared to his counterpart, precisely because he got the job done but couldn’t tell the public. Trump, though, seemed like a candidate that wasn’t afraid to promise those big changes. He has planned to both increase a big corporate tax cut but also carry out the “biggest deportation project in the history of this country” with the help of the military. Additionally, Trump plans to withdraw the U.S. from any international climate agreements, promising that his proposals will decrease inflation.
These widely different views for the country have each been championed by innumerable big voices and rich forces. Over 1 billion dollars have been raised by Harris for President and Trump for President in their campaigns, a record-breaking amount never seen in the history of all presidential bids. Thanks to this, both campaigns have been able to host lots of rallies to gather support. Barack and Michelle Obama, Taylor Swift, Eminem, and former Republicans, have endorsed Harris to create a strong public opinion of inclusion and support. In fact, never in the history of this country has support from the previous president’s cabinet been so low, and Democrats are using this as a direct attack to prove Trump’s difficult personality and immoral beliefs. Elon Musk has probably been the most controversial and strong supporter of Trump, using huge amounts of his time and resources hoping to help the former president reclaim the presidency. He regularly participates in Trump’s key rallies in swing states and offers money to people signing pro-conservative petitions. Perhaps this election was the most publicly engaging, with so many celebrities and news media channels being politically active. Although influential endorsements don’t always lead to an increase in support, these endorsements have the potential to help the public understand the diverse perspectives of multiple people, allowing them to fully participate in the democratic process with more knowledge to support a candidate.
Graphing the polling averages of all of the polls collected since the day after Biden’s dropout, Harris leads Trump narrowly by 1.2 points as of October 31. It is significant to note that this is well within the margin of error of +/- 4 points. This is the closest the polls have been in modern history. Comparatively, in 2020, Biden enjoyed a 9.4 points lead over Trump throughout the entire cycle. The accuracy of these polls should also be questioned, noting that Trump won the Electoral College while trailing in the polls against Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Similarly to 2016, the polls are so close that narrow leads can be rendered inconsequential. The current state of the Electoral College seems to give Harris 226 safe candidates that will pledge to her, with Trump projected to receive 219 electoral college votes without contest. The battleground states in this cycle are Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and, most importantly, Pennsylvania. There is no clear leader in these states and the delegates will not know how they have to pledge until the people have voted. The biggest prize this year is Pennsylvania, with 19 delegates up for grabs. Remembering that the winning candidate has to win 270, Harris has a better chance of clinching the nomination in this incredibly tight race. Out of the seven battlegrounds, Harris doesn’t necessarily have more popularity but rather has more flexibility. Even if Trump wins all four southern states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, he would have no other option but to break the blue wall, which consists of the Northern top states excluding Montana, North Dakota, and Idaho that are traditionally known to be a democratic sweep, and win in either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. Harris, on the other hand, can win just by securing the blue wall, and can replace any of her losses in the Rust Belt with one or two wins in the Sun Belt.
This election provided America with two binary extremes: one pragmatic progressive and one populist conservative. With political rhetoric getting sharper, America is still divided on its views of the future of the country, and the candidates are in their final sprint in pursuit of the White House. This election gave voters an immense amount of information on the candidates, with high-profile endorsements coming in from both sides. Financial ability has become crucial to convincing voters. As of now, the Harris campaign has more flexible paths to victory, but the election is historically close in a ruthlessly divided country. With only a few days left, here’s to the extraordinary.
