In 2022, Democrats did the impossible. In a midterm election year when Democrats were expected by pollsters and pundits to lose dozens of seats in the House of Representatives and up to a handful in the US Senate, the party lost only nine seats in the House and actually expanded its Senate majority. But the party’s unexpectedly strong streak didn’t end there; Democrats made net gains on the state level in 2022 andv2023, and 2024’s special elections have held similar success for Democrats. At the heart of these recent overperformances lies the electoral strength, widespread underestimation, and strong Democratic messengers on reproductive rights — and if Democrats can mobilize electoral support for abortion and fertility treatments as successfully as they have since the overturning of Roe (we’ll get to that), they have an enormous opportunity to make history once again this November.
Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision overturned the half-century of precedent enshrined by its previous ruling in Roe v. Wade, reproductive rights have been the defining issue in American politics — and one where Democrats are particularly strong. Many voters consider abortion to be the most important factor in determining their vote. CNN’s exit polling of the 2022 midterms found that abortion was the strongest motivating factor for 27% of voters (over ¾ of whom supported Democrats) — nearly as many as those who chose inflation, and far more than for immigration or crime. Per Gallup, around 10% of voters have historically identified as “single-issue” pro-life Republicans, with pro-choice Democrats representing about half that figure. However, this trend has reversed as reproductive rights have come to the political forefront in recent years, with pro-life Republicans holding steady while pro-choice Democrats rose to a record 17% of voters in 2022 — and 23% of voters in 2024. The party has successfully capitalized on this popular sentiment, mentioning the issue in 27% of their 2022 ads — a figure up from 2% in 2018, and a dramatic contrast to the Republicans’ 5%. Pro-choice causes have won every time they’ve been on the ballot — even in red states like Kentucky, Kansas, and Ohio. Reproductive rights have been a decisive winning issue for Democrats in 2022 and 2023, and they’re set to mean the same in 2024.
Reproductive rights have also been underestimated alongside the Democrats they helped propel to victory. Let’s look into the 2022 governor elections in swing-state Michigan — polling conducted by the reputable Emerson College predicted that abortion would be the most important issue to 23% of voters, but exit polling found that it was the primary motivator to 45% of voters. This unexpected strength resulted in what was expected to be a close race turned out more like a landslide by swing-state standards. It’s no coincidence that an abortion referendum successfully ran alongside Governor Gretchen Whitmer — 73% of women voters described the aforementioned referendum as “very” or “somewhat” important to their decision to vote. Nationally, the respected New York Times/Siena polling showed abortion as the most important issue for a mere 4% of voters — and again, exit polls demonstrated that the number was closer to 27%. The same pollster currently expects that 15% of 2024 voters will be motivated primarily by abortion — if the 2022 trend holds, that figure could skyrocket once again. Abortion-related ballot initiatives in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana helped propel Democratic candidates to victory in states that Republican candidates have historically won by double-digit percentage margins. Republicans’ underestimation of the motivating power of reproductive rights has allowed Democrats to dictate popular discourse around abortion and fertility treatments, while Republican candidates were encouraged to ignore it. In 2024, abortion referendums in competitive states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida (plus others in redder and bluer states alike) will help boost Vice President Harris and local Democrats in those states. Reproductive rights have been underestimated across the nation, putting abortion, fertility treatments, and the Democratic Party in a strong position coming into November.
It’s also important to consider Vice President Harris’s and Governor Walz’s strengths as messengers on reproductive rights. Women candidates have been the nation’s strongest abortion advocates, especially ever since reproductive rights stopped being guaranteed. Vice President Harris’s status as a relatively younger woman — and one who has taken internet culture by storm — makes her even more effective at drawing in support from younger women — a large group that tends to support Democrats overall, but is less consistent in voting than older voters. Polling has reflected this, with Harris leading Trump by strong margins on who voters trust to better handle abortion. In the recent ABC presidential debate, Harris’s most powerful moments were her passionate anecdotes and straightforward rhetoric around on abortion. On the other hand, Governor Walz can — and frequently does — point to his own experiences with infertility and how meaningful fertility treatments are to families across America. This makes for a strong contrast with Republicans, who blocked a bill to protect IVF access nationwide — twice.
With under 50 days to go until the 2024 elections, the outcome of the presidential race remains uncertain. However, the electoral strength of reproductive rights as an issue, Republicans’ underestimation of their motivating power to voters, and the Democratic candidates’ particular strength on reproductive freedom suggest that — if able to capitalize on abortion rights and IVF access as successfully as they have since the day Roe fell, Democrats are in for a very impressive election.
